Earnings
Carrefour cuts its 2026 profit outlook as unrest in France hits about 50 stores
The French grocer now sees its operating margin rising by at most 15 basis points this year and puts the hit to recurring operating income at €80 million to €200 million.
HedgeWeekly News Desk ·
Carrefour lowered its 2026 guidance after the Paris close on Tuesday, saying the violence and looting that began in France at the weekend had reduced footfall, forced shorter opening hours under curfews and pushed up security and logistics costs. The retailer now expects its recurring operating margin to improve by 0 to 15 basis points this year, compared with a previous target of 25 basis points. It sees adjusted earnings per share stable or slightly above 2025's €1.60, having earlier pointed to growth of close to 10%, and now expects net free cash flow to dip slightly rather than grow.
Chief executive Alexandre Bompard put the likely hit to recurring operating income at €80 million to €200 million, according to French press reports of the company's briefing. Chief financial officer Matthieu Malige said about 50 stores, mostly in urban areas, had been attacked or looted, and many more had closed early on Sunday and Monday. The government has put the national total at about 3,000 shops damaged or looted. Carrefour is also cutting its French capital spending budget for the year to €1.6 billion from €1.7 billion.
The warning overshadowed a steady third quarter. Group sales including tax rose 3.9% at current exchange rates to €22.69 billion, and like-for-like growth picked up to 2.3% from 2.1% in the first half. France, which accounted for €11.9 billion of sales, grew 1.2% on a like-for-like basis, Spain 2.1% and Brazil 1.4%, while online sales rose 18%.
Why it matters: this is one of the first attempts by a large listed company to put a figure on the cost of France's unrest. The €80 million to €200 million range equals roughly 3.7% to 9.3% of Carrefour's 2025 recurring operating income of €2.158 billion, and its width reflects how unclear the outlook is; Malige said he expects more curfew-related closures in the coming weeks. The shares closed at €16.30 on Tuesday, before the release, so Wednesday's Paris session is the market's first chance to react. At that price, the €0.97 dividend paid for 2025 equals a yield of nearly 6%. Investors in French consumer and retail stocks will be watching whether other chains report similar effects as the unrest continues.