Markets
Fed decision and Microsoft, Alphabet results land on the same day next week
The Fed announces policy on October 28, hours before two of the biggest AI spenders report, in the busiest week of the third-quarter earnings season.
HedgeWeekly News Desk ·
The Federal Reserve will publish its policy decision on Wednesday, October 28, and Chair Kevin Warsh will hold a press conference the same afternoon. Microsoft and Alphabet report after the close that day, making it the most crowded session of a week that also brings the first estimate of US third-quarter GDP.
Fed funds futures put the chance of a rate increase on Wednesday at about 5%, according to LSEG data cited by Reuters, against roughly 80% for a hike at the December meeting. The Fed raised rates in September for the first time since 2023, and the meeting falls a week before the November 3 midterm elections.
Amazon, Intel and Sandisk follow after the bell on Thursday, October 29, with Eli Lilly, Caterpillar, Mastercard and Merck reporting that morning. Exxon Mobil, Chevron and AbbVie close the week on Friday. With more than 100 S&P 500 companies reported, third-quarter earnings are tracking growth of more than 32% from a year earlier, per LSEG IBES data.
Why it matters: the AI trade enters the week on the back foot after the Nasdaq Composite's biggest one-day fall since June on Thursday, October 22. Hyperscaler capital spending is expected to reach about $800 billion this year, so capex guidance and evidence of returns from Microsoft, Alphabet and Amazon will test crowded tech positioning. Warsh's remarks on the December path matter for the same names, because rising financing costs have added to investor caution on AI spending.