Commodities
Iran claims two supertankers hit mines off Hormuz as a Houthi missile targets Riyadh, leaving oil traders a tense weekend
Unverified IRGC claims of disabled tankers and US talk of possible weekend strikes collide with Washington's view that Gulf exports are above pre-war levels.
HedgeWeekly News Desk ·
Iran's Revolutionary Guards navy said two supertankers carrying a combined more than 4.5 million barrels of crude struck naval mines on Friday while using what Tehran called an unauthorised southern route through the Strait of Hormuz. It said engine-room fires disabled both ships and their crews abandoned them. Neither vessel has been named and the claim has not been independently confirmed. Early on Saturday, the Saudi-led coalition said it destroyed a Houthi ballistic missile fired at Riyadh and a drone over the Eastern Province.
Mixed signals from Washington add to the risk. Tom Barrack, the US ambassador to Turkiye, said a strike on Iran could come this weekend while stressing that President Trump remained open to a deal; Trump distanced himself from the comment but warned at a Florida rally of further action if Tehran does not agree terms. Trump had previously said strikes would not come before the November 3 congressional elections. Two Iranian security officials told Reuters that Iran has plans to target Gulf undersea cables if it is attacked again.
The picture on flows is contested. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on Friday that Persian Gulf oil exports have surpassed pre-conflict levels, while Fars, citing an IRGC source, said traffic by non-compliant ships had stopped and that three tankers were hit on Thursday. Washington Institute data reported by Reuters counts at least 28 attacks on vessels in the strait in October, the highest monthly total by that measure, and 113 since February.
Why it matters: Brent touched $117.30 and WTI about $103 on Friday, so any confirmation of the mine strikes, or a US move against Iran, would land on a market that is already pricing serious supply risk when trading resumes on Monday. The gap between Iran's account and Bessent's export figures is the key question for macro funds and energy allocators; independent confirmation from ship operators or the UK Maritime Trade Operations agency would settle it. Other dates on the calendar are Israel's election on Tuesday, a meeting between Iran's President Masoud Pezeshkian and Vladimir Putin at a gas exporters' summit in Moscow next week, and the US midterms on November 3.