Macro
S&P keeps Greece at BBB with a stable outlook, leaving Fitch's November 6 review as the last of the year
The agency sees Greek net debt falling to 123% of GDP this year and 107% by 2029, but held back from following Scope, Moody's and DBRS in turning more positive.
HedgeWeekly News Desk ·
S&P Global Ratings affirmed Greece's long-term sovereign credit rating at BBB with a stable outlook after a scheduled review on Friday, keeping the country in investment grade. The short-term rating stays at A-2. Both are unchanged from S&P's previous review in April.
The agency pointed to fiscal outperformance. It expects a primary budget surplus of 3.8% of GDP in 2026 and an overall surplus of 0.8%, about one percentage point above the government's original target, with the state budget roughly €1.1 billion ahead of plan through August. Net of about €33 billion in cash reserves, S&P projects public debt at 123% of GDP at the end of 2026, 40 points below end-2019, and 107% by end-2029. It forecasts average growth of 2.1% a year from 2027 to 2029.
S&P said an upgrade would require a substantial and lasting improvement in Greece's external imbalances, such as lower reliance on imports and a significant reduction in external debt. A substantial deterioration in fiscal performance could lead to a downgrade.
For bond investors, the decision leaves S&P as the only one of the four agencies to have reviewed Greece in the second half without a positive move: Scope upgraded it to BBB+ in September, while Moody's (Baa3) and DBRS (BBB) both shifted their outlooks to positive. S&P last raised Greece, to BBB from BBB-, in April 2025. Fitch, the fifth agency, is due to complete the cycle on November 6.