Commodities
Trump weighs resuming Iran strikes after the November 3 midterms as a third US carrier group heads for the Gulf
Bloomberg and the Wall Street Journal report preparations for renewed action against Iran once the US vote is over, though no final decision has been made, with Brent already up more than 80% this year.
HedgeWeekly News Desk ·
The Trump administration is laying the groundwork for a possible return to military action against Iran after the November 3 US midterm elections, according to reports from Bloomberg and the Wall Street Journal published on Saturday. The US has ordered a third aircraft carrier strike group and 10,000 more sailors and Marines toward the Persian Gulf, Bloomberg reported, as the war that began in February enters its eighth month.
The Journal, as relayed by other outlets, said President Donald Trump is leaning toward renewed strikes but has not taken a final decision. Unnamed US officials described options ranging from hitting nuclear and infrastructure targets such as bridges to operations against islands held by Iran, while some officials have argued against a new round because it would push energy prices higher. The White House said on Thursday that attacks would not resume before the vote and that Trump keeps all options on the table.
Tehran is preparing for the same timetable. A person familiar with Iranian thinking told Bloomberg that Iran expects a US bombing campaign around the midterms and would retaliate across the region, including against Israel and the United Arab Emirates, and sees the stretch between the election and the seating of the new Congress in early January as the most dangerous. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth met Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu during an unannounced visit days before Israel's own election on Tuesday, and the State Department has told some diplomats and their families to leave Saudi Arabia after Houthi attacks there.
Why it matters: Brent crude has risen more than 80% this year, according to Bloomberg, so energy traders are already pricing heavy supply risk before any new campaign. The reports point to a dated window rather than an open-ended threat: Israel votes on Tuesday, the US on November 3, and Iran's side flags the period through early January. Iran is also striking more ships near the Strait of Hormuz with guided missiles rather than drones, according to shipping and maritime security officials cited by Bloomberg, while a US naval blockade of Iranian ports continues. For funds with energy, inflation or Gulf exposure, the things to watch are further US deployments, any shift in White House guidance on timing, and shipping incidents in and around Hormuz.