Markets
The 7am Briefing: Election Day Brings Apple's Margin Warning and AMD Tonight
Apple beats but slips, oil rebounds on a US strike, and AMD reports after the close.
HedgeWeekly Video & Briefing Desk ·
Top line: Apple beat on sales and profit last night, yet its shares are falling, and that sums up the market Americans vote into today. The midterms decide control of Congress, AMD reports tonight and oil is rebounding after a US strike on Iran's Qeshm Island.
Before the bell: US futures as of 4:00 a.m. ET; other prices early Tuesday. S&P 500 futures −0.03% · Nasdaq 100 +0.34% · Dow −0.48%. 10-year Treasury about 4.91% · 2-year about 4.60%. WTI crude +1.3% to about $97.71 · Brent +1.3% to about $106.13. Gold −1.46% to about $3,912 · Dollar index +0.06% to 101.69. Bitcoin −2.19% to about $76,460.
Markets and macro: 1. Apple's margin outlook hits tech again. Apple's fiscal fourth-quarter revenue rose 12% to $114.5 billion and earnings per share reached $2.10, both above forecasts. But it guided December-quarter gross margin, the share of sales kept after production costs, to 45% to 46%, below estimates, citing memory-chip costs. China sales also missed. The Nasdaq 100 is now in a correction, 10% below its October peak, XTB noted. On Monday, Marvell fell 12.7% after agreeing a $115 billion deal for Lumentum.
Markets and macro: 2. Oil rebounds after a US strike. The US struck Iran's Qeshm Island in the Strait of Hormuz, a US official told Reuters, confirming a Wall Street Journal report. Brent rose about 1.3% to $106.13 by 4 a.m. ET, after Monday's slide of more than 7%. Iran says the strait cannot reopen until its conditions are met, though mediators are still working to narrow differences. President Trump said he was optimistic about a deal.
Markets and macro: 3. Australia hikes to an 18-year high. The Reserve Bank of Australia raised its cash rate by a quarter point to 4.85%, the highest since 2008. It was the fifth rise this year, and three of nine members voted to hold. Seoul's Kospi fell more than 3% as the chip sell-off spread, and Taiwan dropped 3.6% in early trade, Reuters said. Japan was shut for a holiday.
Markets and macro: Also overnight: The euro rose above $1.12 on Monday, its biggest daily gain in over two weeks, Saxo said. US spot bitcoin funds saw $398.6 million of net outflows on Monday, crypto.news reported.
Hedge fund moves: Millennium pulls $1.5 billion from two managers. Izzy Englander's firm withdrew more than $1 billion from event-driven manager Troluce Capital Advisors and about $500 million from Axebrook Capital, Bloomberg reported. People familiar with the matter said trading losses prompted the moves. Both funds were backed only last year and will keep managing money. Millennium runs a $95 billion platform with strict loss limits and returned 8.1% through September.
Hedge fund moves: Funds have sold their AI buying since 2025. Hedge funds reversed all net purchases of AI-linked stocks made since early 2025 within five sessions, Goldman Sachs prime brokerage data reported by Hedgeweek show. About $20 billion of tech was sold over two weeks, close to July's $23 billion unwind. Managers mostly cut longs rather than adding shorts. Tech still makes up 23.5% of Goldman's prime book, near a five-year high.
Earnings to watch: Apple beat on revenue ($114.5 billion vs $113.4 billion expected) and earnings per share ($2.10 vs $1.99); shares fell about 4.5% premarket on the margin guide. Palantir grew revenue 96% to $2.31 billion, above $2.18 billion expected, and raised its 2026 outlook; shares were down more than 5% premarket. Pfizer reports before the open, with analysts expecting 73 cents a share on revenue of $15.91 billion, Investing.com said. AMD reports after the close with a 5 p.m. ET call; it guided revenue to about $13 billion, near the $13.1 billion consensus Hudson Labs cited.
HedgeWeekly Stockwatch: AAPL Apple: revenue and profit beat forecasts, but December-quarter margin guidance of 45% to 46% came in below estimates. PLTR Palantir: revenue jumped 96%, yet total contract value growth slowed to 6% from 49% in the second quarter. AMD: reports tonight after a 7.5% drop on Monday as chip stocks sold off. AEHR Aehr Test Systems: up about 15.5% premarket after record quarterly revenue of $33 million, up 200%.
Today's calendar (ET): All day: US midterm voting, with results starting after the close and Indiana and Kentucky among the first. Before the open: Pfizer results. 10:00 a.m.: September job openings (JOLTS), after 7.1 million in August; factory orders are also due. After the close: AMD results, with a 5 p.m. call; Shopify, Amgen and Supermicro also report today. Later this week: Treasury refunding Wednesday, Bank of England Thursday, October jobs report Friday at 8:30 a.m.
Number of the day: 77%. That is the chance Polymarket traders give Democrats of winning the Senate, with Kalshi at 76%, Reuters reported. Polls favour Democrats for the House too. Traders are more cautious after Brazil's election caught them off guard last month. CNBC names defense, healthcare and AI as the industries most exposed to the result.
One thing to watch: Results arrive after the close, just as AMD reports. Watch whether futures react more to the vote count or to AMD's outlook. Also watch whether oil holds its rebound if more Hormuz headlines land overnight.
Sources
- Investing.com
- Reuters via Investing.com
- Bloomberg via Investing.com
- The Wall Street Journal
- XTB
- Saxo
- Stocktwits
- Gotrade
- CNBC via Gotrade
- TipRanks
- TradingView
- Hudson Labs
- crypto.news
- Hedgeweek
- FedRateCalc