Markets
The 7am Briefing: Democrats Take Congress as AMD and Gold Climb
Futures recover from an election-night drop, AMD lifts chips and the dollar slips.
HedgeWeekly Video & Briefing Desk ·
Top line: Democrats will control both chambers of Congress from January, and markets have already been through fear and relief overnight. Nasdaq futures fell as much as 2.4% on the early results, then recovered as AMD's forecast and a weaker dollar took over. Here is what matters before the open, in about four minutes.
Before the bell: US futures as of 4:22 a.m. ET; other prices between 1:45 and 4:30 a.m. ET. S&P 500 futures +0.35% · Nasdaq 100 +0.16% · Dow +0.84%. 10-year Treasury about 4.92% · 2-year about 4.62%. WTI crude +0.7% to about $96.72 · Brent +0.7% to about $104.36. Gold +3% to about $4,047 · Dollar index −0.45% to 101.27. Bitcoin +1.8% to about $77,920.
Markets and macro: 1. Democrats sweep Congress, and futures recover. Democrats hold 54 Senate seats with two races uncalled, and 228 House seats, past the 218 needed, AP projections show. Nasdaq 100 futures fell as much as 2.4% as results came in, then turned higher. President Trump told The New York Times he would accept the results, and he keeps his veto. "This has helped ease some concerns about prolonged political confrontation," said Daniela Hathorn of Capital.com. Europe's Stoxx 600 rose nearly 1%, led by banks up almost 4%.
Markets and macro: 2. AMD lifts chips, but data-centre names slip. AMD's third-quarter revenue rose 45% to about $13.4 billion, with data-centre sales up 97%, investingLive reported. It expects 2027 revenue growth above 80%, against 77% forecast, and the shares were up about 7% premarket. Builders of AI data centres went the other way. CoreWeave fell as much as 3.2% and Applied Digital 3%, Investing.com said. Investors fear tighter oversight, tax-break rollbacks and antitrust scrutiny. Evercore ISI's Amit Daryanani said "the initial reaction will be to sell AI names."
Markets and macro: 3. Gold jumps while oil holds steady. Spot gold rose about 3% to $4,046.91 by 4:28 a.m. ET, and silver gained 4.4%, Reuters reported. Brent rose 0.7% to $104.36, a day after its lowest settle in nearly four weeks. Industry data showed US crude stocks fell 5.27 million barrels, against an expected rise of about 880,000. A senior Iranian official said Tehran and Washington remain far from a deal.
Markets and macro: Also overnight: Japan's Nikkei fell 1.4% after touching its lowest since early May, while Shanghai rose 2.2%, Share Talk reported. Seoul's Kospi recovered from a 4% intraday drop to trade about 0.6% higher.
Hedge fund moves: Quants and stock pickers both lost in October. Systematic long-short funds fell 3.6% and fundamental long-short funds about 3.5%, Goldman Sachs prime brokerage data show. Goldman said it was the first month since 2016 in which both groups dropped more than 3%. JPMorgan estimated global hedge funds lost about 3.5% for the month. The damage came from AI and tech shares, as the Nasdaq 100 fell 6.6%, its worst month in 18 months.
Hedge fund moves: D.E. Shaw reaches a record $125 billion. The quant firm's assets are up from $98 billion at the start of the year, Hedgeweek reported, citing Bloomberg. Its flagship Composite fund returned 15.3% through September. Investors pay a 3% management fee and 35% performance fee, plus a new 0.12% technology charge, with lockups of up to four years. It also raised about $6 billion for Cogence, its first fund run by human portfolio managers.
Earnings to watch: Arista Networks grew revenue 58.5% to $3.66 billion and guided the fourth quarter to $3.9 billion to $4.0 billion. Shares rose about 9.5% in initial after-hours trade. Novo Nordisk beat on third-quarter operating profit and raised its full-year outlook. Its shares were up 4.2% in Copenhagen. Before the open: CVS Health (consensus $1.65 a share on $104.72 billion of revenue), Uber ($0.86, $14.66 billion) and McDonald's ($3.38, $7.28 billion), per Newsquawk. After the close: Qualcomm ($2.16, $10.12 billion), Arm ($0.47, $1.38 billion) and AppLovin ($4.03, $2.08 billion).
HedgeWeekly Stockwatch: AMD Advanced Micro Devices: revenue up 45% and a 2027 growth forecast above 80%, ahead of the 77% analysts expected. ANET Arista Networks: revenue up 58.5% to $3.66 billion, with fourth-quarter guidance of up to $4.0 billion. CRWV CoreWeave: down as much as 3.2% premarket as AI data-centre names fell on fears of tighter oversight. FSLR First Solar: up about 8.1% premarket as solar shares gained after the Democratic sweep, Reuters reported.
Today's calendar (ET): Before the open: ADP October private payrolls, forecast 70,000 after 90,000 in September. 8:30 a.m.: US trade balance, expected at a deficit of about $108 billion. 10:00 a.m.: ISM services index for October, forecast 54.8 after 54.9. 10:30 a.m.: Weekly crude inventories from the Energy Information Administration, after the 5.27 million-barrel industry draw. Friday: the October jobs report.
Number of the day: 83%. That is the chance traders give a Fed rate hike in December, according to CME FedWatch, cited by Reuters. Capital Economics said that likely hawkishness could limit gold's gains. For US investors, it means borrowing costs could rise again even as power shifts in Washington.
One thing to watch: Chipmakers rallied on AMD while data-centre builders fell on policy worries. Do those two groups keep moving apart once regular trading opens? Qualcomm and Arm report tonight, giving another read on AI chip demand.