Markets
The 7am Briefing: Waller Eyes a Bigger Hike; CPI at 8:30; Brent Near $90
Waller floats a half-point hike before CPI, Brent slips to $90 and Trade Desk jumps.
HedgeWeekly Video & Briefing Desk ·
Top line: Could one inflation number push the Fed towards a half-point rate rise next month? Fed Governor Christopher Waller says it might, just hours before October's consumer prices land at 8:30 a.m. Here's what moved overnight and what matters before the open.
Before the bell (US futures as of 5:20 a.m. ET): S&P 500 futures +0.06% · Nasdaq 100 −0.29% · Dow +0.35%. 10-year Treasury about 4.89% · 2-year about 4.58%. WTI crude −1.85% to about $85.24 · Brent −2.15% to about $90.58. Gold −0.78% to about $4,082 · Dollar index +0.08% to 101.62. Bitcoin +0.15% to about $74,300.
Markets and macro: 1. Waller opens the door wider. In remarks prepared for London, the Fed governor said he backs a quarter-point hike at the December 8-9 meeting, even if inflation improves. He said a half-point move "should be considered" if core prices rise 0.3% or more from September. That would lift the Fed's target range to at least 4.00%-4.25%. Futures put the chance of a December hike at about 85%, Reuters reported. Forecasters expect October prices up 0.3% and core prices up 0.2%.
Markets and macro: 2. Asia's chip rally keeps going. South Korea's Kospi rose 4% to 5,219 and Japan's Nikkei 225 gained 2.6% to 60,279, the AP reported. SK Hynix added 5.6% and Samsung Electronics 4.6%. SoftBank Group jumped about 14% in Tokyo before results. After the close it reported a quarterly loss of about 1.1 trillion yen, roughly $7 billion, against a 2.5 trillion yen profit a year earlier. The rebound followed Monday's 2.35% gain for the S&P 500, its best day since April.
Markets and macro: 3. Anthropic takes its IPO on the road. The AI company behind Claude may begin formally marketing its Nasdaq listing today, Reuters reported. An early filing showed about 867 million shares at $70 to $80 each, raising up to $69.3 billion. Anthropic then told banks those pricing details were inaccurate and promised an updated filing. Pricing is expected on November 19, with Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley leading, according to IG.
Markets and macro: Also overnight: China's October exports rose 35.2% from a year earlier, and imports rose 41.6%. Beijing also extended its pause on an extra 24% tariff on some US goods by two months, Saxo said.
Hedge fund moves: Jain Global's equities head leaves to launch. Townie Wells, who ran fundamental equities at Jain Global, has left to start a long/short fund in New York. That style bets on some shares rising and others falling. Millennium is in talks about a multibillion-dollar anchor allocation, Hedgeweek reported, citing Bloomberg. Jain's equities business earned roughly $750 million of trading profit in 2025. Since September, Jain has run money only for Millennium.
Hedge fund moves: Man Group faces a $155 million bill. A London judge found two Man subsidiaries liable in a case brought by Kuwait's Public Institution for Social Security. The pension fund says its former director general diverted about $1 billion, partly through bribes. Man disagrees with the ruling, calls it a legacy matter and is weighing an appeal. A hearing this month will fix the amount.
Earnings to watch: The Trade Desk posted revenue of $736 million, against $651.4 million expected. It guided fourth-quarter revenue to $755 million at the midpoint, above the $692 million consensus. Rocket Lab reported record revenue of $268 million, up 73%, but a wider loss. Shares were down about 7.3% before the bell. Before the open: TransDigm, with consensus earnings of $11.43 a share, plus Sea and On Holding. After the close: CoreWeave, with expected revenue of $3.54 billion and a loss of $1.27 a share, TipRanks said.
HedgeWeekly Stockwatch: TTD The Trade Desk: revenue and guidance both beat forecasts, though sales were flat on a year earlier. CRWV CoreWeave: reports tonight, with options pricing a move of about 21% either way. NVDA Nvidia: up about 2% premarket after Monday's 4.3% fall, as its board investigates the CEO. RKLB Rocket Lab: eight new Neutron launch deals worth over $515 million, but the first launch slipped to 2027.
Today's calendar (ET): 6:00 a.m.: NFIB small business optimism, forecast 97.7 vs 97.9 prior. 8:30 a.m.: October CPI, forecast +0.3% vs +0.6% prior; core +0.2% vs +0.3%. 9:35 a.m.: Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan speaks. 1:00 p.m.: $42 billion 10-year Treasury auction. 3:30 p.m.: Fed Governor Michelle Bowman speaks, then CoreWeave results after the close.
Number of the day: About 22%. That is how far Brent has fallen from its late-October peak above $117 a barrel, according to Saxo. It slipped below $91 after President Trump said further strikes on Iran were "highly unlikely" if talks progress. Cheaper fuel could ease the energy-driven inflation that Waller says is keeping the Fed on alert.
One thing to watch: October's figures come without a yearly rate, because the 2025 shutdown left no October base. So the monthly core number carries extra weight. Watch whether it lands at 0.3% or higher, the level Waller tied to a larger hike.
Sources
- Investing.com
- Reuters via Investing.com
- Reuters via Euronext
- Stocktwits
- AP
- Saxo
- Yahoo Finance
- StockTitan
- TipRanks
- IG
- Hedgeweek
- Bloomberg via Hedgeweek
- Insurance Journal
- Asianet Newsable
- TradingKey