Macro
US Consumer Prices Rise 0.4% in October, With No Annual Rate Published
Core prices rose 0.3%, above forecasts, and the Bureau of Labor Statistics could not calculate 12-month changes because of a data gap from last year's funding lapse.
HedgeWeekly News Desk ·
The US consumer price index rose 0.4% in October on a seasonally adjusted basis, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said on Tuesday. Economists had forecast 0.3%, according to CoinCentral's report on the data. Core prices, which exclude food and energy, rose 0.3% against a forecast of 0.2%.
Shelter rose 0.3% and accounted for more than 30% of the monthly increase. Food rose 0.5%, and energy rose 0.7% after a 5.2% jump in September. Gasoline gained 1.0% on a seasonally adjusted basis, following 9.1% in September, although unadjusted gasoline prices fell 0.7%. HousingWire reported that electricity rose 0.9% while natural gas fell 0.8%.
The bureau did not publish 12-month changes for October. It collected no October 2025 prices because of a lapse in appropriations, so the comparison base is missing. HousingWire said economists put annual headline inflation in the high 3% range, an estimate rather than an official figure.
For funds and allocators, the release matters because it lands just after Fed Governor Christopher Waller, speaking in London before the data, said a core reading of 0.3% or higher could justify considering a 50-basis-point hike in December, CoinCentral reported. The same report put the 10-year Treasury yield at 4.93% and the 2-year at 4.69% after the release, with CME FedWatch showing 88.3% odds of a 25-basis-point December hike and 11.7% for 50. Without an official annual rate, traders will lean on monthly prints and the Fed's own commentary when judging how much further policy tightens.